6.3 Assessment of the hydraulic reliability of culverts under extreme precipitation and mudflows using the Monte Carlo method

Abstrak

This study addresses the assessment of the hydraulic reliability of culverts within road and railway infrastructures under extreme rainfall and debris flow conditions. The research accounts for the stochastic variability of parameters such as rainfall depth, catchment area, runoff coefficient, and hydraulic capacity of the culvert. To evaluate hydraulic reliability, the Monte Carlo simulation method was employed to compare the inflow discharge and the discharge capacity of the culvert based on a large number of random scenarios. Consequently, the capability to determine the probability of the culvert failing to pass the design discharge is demonstrated. The proposed approach can be applied to design culverts, assess their technical condition, and enhance the reliability of transport infrastructure under extreme hydrological conditions.